Business IDEAS India Small Investing 2014
REUTERS/Gopal Chitrakar
Most agree that we have witnessed the end of a massive, three-decade bull market in bonds.
Some are also skeptical of the potential for returns in the stock market in the years ahead, given common valuation multiples that are currently above historical averages.
We asked a few of our favorite traders, strategists, and economists for their best investment ideas for the next 10 years. Here's what they told us:
"These instruments are a bi-product of Greek debt restructuring and will pay a cent a year if and when Greek GDP hits certain thresholds. They won't pay those cents for several years yet because Greek GDP is still some way from the triggers, so they are suited to the patient professional investor with a long term horizon. But in the meantime default risk is tiny; it's hard to default when you only have to pay in good times."
—Gabriel Sterne, fixed income economist at Exotix
"On a ten year view I'd invest in the Tehran stock exchange, but given its difficult for US citizens in particular to do so, I'd pick the Doha Stock Market in Qatar. Qatar is a country with a GDP per citizen of around $1m that will be investing aggressively into World Cup 2022 to transform itself into a destination for millions of tourists. The country's stock exchange is being promoted to the main MSCI Emerging Markets index this May and trades at under 10x earnings (versus a historic level of 15-20x) with a 5% dividend yield and likely EPS growth of 10%, backed by the government who are extremely shareholder friendly given the locals own the majority of shares. The currency is pegged to the US dollar with appreciation potential. If/when US rates start to rise, net interest margins of local banks will expand dramatically. An easy way to invest is the closed-end Qatar Investment Fund listed in London, which gives you index exposure at a 10% discount to NAV. This should easily triple over 10 years in dollar terms with minimal downside risk."
—Emad Mostaque, strategist at NOAH Capital Markets
"No brainer."
—Jim O'Neill, former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management
"There is a great deal of room to rebalance income and output domestically from tier-1 cities that do not have the productivity to justify their high prices and incomes into tier-2 cities. Cities that are competitive may not be the outright cheapest: they are cheaper than tier-1 cities, but still have the fixed capital and stability to support enterprise."
—Matt Busigin, editor and principal author of Macrofugue Analytics
"I'd choose ZIV, an ETN that tracks short exposure to medium-term VIX futures. The reason for this choice is that the volatility risk premium is one of the best and most persistent sources of risk-adjusted returns, and selling the middle of the VIX curve has outperformed a lot of related volatility strategies."
—Jared Woodard, principal of Condor Options
"Ten years is a long time in investments (this time 10 years ago, Eastman-Kodak was a Dow component) so a ten-year single lock-in investment is going to have to meet some criteria: (1) unlikely to be disrupted by technology; (2) meets a need somewhere towards the bottom of Maslow's pyramid; (3) produces a yield; and (4) expectation of capital gain. With this in mind, my ten-year lock-in investment would be agricultural land. The customer base is growing. The customers have little choice about buying the production from agricultural land. It produces a yield. Supply is limited (full disclosure — I own a farm)."
